MOON SUN FINANCE ACADEMIC REFERENCES

MOON SUN FINANCE ACADEMIC REFERENCES

Moon Sun Finance References In Technical Analysis & Astrology

This page gives a listing of academic papers published on Moon Sun Finance.

To date, virtually all academic papers have only assessed lunar phase in relation to
stock market activity and the three other 'months' have yet to be considered.
Hopefully this will be achieved at some stage.
Tropical Month - the Moon's position on the ecliptical circle.
Nodical Month - one cycle of the Moon from the north node to the north node.
Apogee Month - one cycle of the Moon from apogee to apogee.
Numerous additional Moon Sun factors also remain to be tested.

Lunar Cycles and the Stock Market: Time-Series Analysis for Environmental Psychologists
ROTTON, J. & KELLY, I. W.
Unpublished manuscript. Florida International University, 1948.

The 56 Year Cycles & Financial Crises
McMINN, David
15th Conference of Economists. The Economics Society of Australia.
Monash University, Melbourne. Aug 25-29, 1986.
Abstract: "Since 1760, most major financial crises in the US and Europe have occurred in 56 year sequences, which in turn are interconnected by sub-cycles of factors of 9 and 13 years. These sub-cycles have a set period in which they are operative, although the 56 year sequences may be regarded as continuous. This approach conflicts with established cyclical theories, which view economic activity as occurring in progressive waves of expansion and contraction ad infinitum. The 56 year cycles refine the well known Kondratieff wave theory and can assist in predicting the major turning points in US and European business activity."

Lunar Cycles in Stock Prices
Vijay M JOG & Allan L. RIDING
Financial Analyst Journal. Mar/Apr 1989. Vol 45. No2. pp 63 - 68.

Lunar Cycles & The Stock Market: Application of a Dynamic (Box-Jenkins) Model
ROTTON, J. & ROSENBERG, M.
Unpublished manuscript. Florida International University. Miami. 1989.

A Classic Case of "Data Snooping" for Classroom Discussion
CRACK, Timothy Falcon.
Journal of Financial Education, Fall 1999. Vol. 25. pages 92-97.
Abstract: "Data snooping (mistaking spurious statistical relationships for genuine ones) is an important and dangerous by-product of financial analysis. However, data snooping is a difficult concept to explain to students of financial economics because, by its very nature, it is difficult to illustrate by example (a strong statistical relationship between complex financial variables is difficult to refute). To overcome this pedagogical difficulty, I present an example of data snooping where one variable is non-financial: I show that near both new moon and full moon, stock market volatility is higher and stock market returns are lower than away from the new or full moon. The simple and off-beat nature of this example enables substantial classroom discussion."

Lunar Cycle Effects in Stock Returns
Ilia D. DICHEV & Troy D. JANES.
The Journal of Private Equity, Fall 2003.
Abstract: "We find strong lunar cycle effects in stock returns. Specifically, returns in the 15 days around new moon dates are about double the returns in the 15 days around full moon dates. This pattern of returns is pervasive; we find it for all major U.S. stock indexes over the last 100 years and for nearly all major stock indexes of 24 other countries over the last 30 years. Taken as a whole, this evidence is consistent with popular beliefs that lunar cycles affect human behavior."

Are Investors Moonstruck? Lunar Phases and Stock Returns
Kathy YUAN, Lu ZHENG and Qiaoqiao ZHU.
Journal of Empirical Finance, Volume 13, Issue 1, January 2006, Pages 1-23.
Abstract: "This paper investigates the relation between lunar phases and stock market returns of 48 countries. The findings indicate that stock returns are lower on the days around a full moon than on the days around a new moon. The magnitude of the return difference is 3% to 5% per annum based on analyses of two global portfolios: one equal-weighted and the other value-weighted. The return difference is not due to changes in stock market volatility or trading volumes. The data show that the lunar effect is not explained away by announcements of macroeconomic indicators, nor is it driven by major global shocks. Moreover, the lunar effect is independent of other calendar-related anomalies such as the January effect, the day-of-week effect, the calendar month effect, and the holiday effect (including lunar holidays)."

Market Lunacy
Lisa BURRELL.
Harvard Business Review. Nov 2006.
Abstract: "The belief that lunar cycles affect how we think and act is widespread and old as the hills, yet, understandably, scholars have struggled to find evidence to support it. That’s not necessarily because the belief isn’t valid, suggest Ilia D. Dichev of the University of Michigan and Troy D. Janes of SUNY Buffalo; the problem could be that many studies examine extreme behavior and thus work with small samples. So for their own research, Dichev and Janes turned to stock markets, where hundreds of millions of people make countless decisions daily. After all, they point out, if a full moon brings on depression and pessimism, as legend has it, mightn’t it trigger a gloomy outlook about future cash flows, leading to risk-averse investing and causing stock prices—and returns on investments—to tank?"

"Indeed, their comprehensive review of 25 stock exchanges over the past 30 years does show a strong correlation between lunar cycles and stock prices. The chart below illustrates findings for the G-7 nations, where, in every case, the annualized mean daily returns are higher around the new moon than around the full moon. The same pattern holds for all the exchanges examined in the larger study except Oslo’s, where the difference is essentially zero."

"While these findings are, admittedly, a bit off the beaten path, they’re the product of rigorous research. So even though we might not be ready just yet to consult lunar cycles for guidance on all our stock trades and other major decisions, we should keep in mind that unexpected sources can beget robust data and analysis, and that correlation and causality must always be carefully examined."

Does Full or New Moon Influence Stock Market? A Methodological Approach
P. R. CHANDY, P. HAENSLY & S. SHETFY.
Journal of Financial Management & Analysis, January 2007.
Summary: "Although there have been many studies dealing with psychological aspects of investor behaviour and scholarly research being pursued to support the day-of-the-week effect, January effect, small-firm effect, etc., and to explain these effects with vigorous economic theory and statistical models, there is scant attention paid to analyzing the effects of lunar cycles (full moon or new moon) on the stock market. The authors have gathered evidence from the literature on psychology which indicates the possibility of the existence of abnormal human behaviour during such periods of lunar cycles and have statistically analyzed the full moon effect separately from the new moon effect on the stock market and have come out with the conclusion that the stock market indices examined showed no evidence of a full moon or a new moon effect. However, there is scope for further research in this most important yet little explored subject."

Lunacy In The Stock Market - What is the evidence?
Anthony HERBST.
Journal of Bioeconomics. 2007. Vol 9. Issue 1, pages 1 - 18.
Abstract: "Popular culture and folklore have long recognized the influence of the lunar cycle on plant, animal, and human behavior. Many of the effects have been validated in the physical and biological sciences. However, until recently such effects have been largely, if not completely ignored in the academic literature of financial economics. This study aims to contribute to answering whether there is, as some claim, a lunar influence on stock prices or volatility. The findings of this work support the Efficient Markets Hypothesis—no consistent, predictable lunar influence is found on either daily returns or daily price volatility in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, for either new or full moons. Some effects are found, but not consistent or predictable with lunar and calendar information alone."

Negative Sentiment & The Lunar Moon Festival Effect
Jerry COAKLEY, Jing-Ming KWO & Andrew WOOD.
School of Accounting, Finance & Management and Essex Finance Centre.
University of Essex. Jan 2008.

Lunar Seasonality in Precious Metal Returns
Brian M. LUCEY.
Trinity College, University of Dublin. Working paper. Sep 18, 2008.
Abstract: "We demonstrate for the first time the existence of a lunar cycle on precious metal returns. This appears to be more pronounced in silver than gold, with very little evidence for an effect in platinum."

Blog Investing Notes - The Lunar Cycle & Stock Returns
cxoadvisory.com November 6, 2008

Lunar Phases Effect in Chinese Stock Returns
Qinghui GAO.
International Conference on Business Intelligence and Financial Engineering. 2009
Abstract: "This paper investigates the relation between lunar phases and stock market returns of China. The findings indicate that stock returns are lower on the days around a new moon than on the days around a full moon. This pattern of returns is pervasive; we find it for two major Chinese stock indexes over the last 16 years. The author concludes that lunar phases do affect stock returns in China, and the culture is one of the factors which affect investor’s sentiment and behavior and then affect stock returns."

Do Krishna Paksha (new moon phase) and Shukla Paksha (full moon phase) affect
the Indian stock market? – A study of lunar cycles in the Bombay Stock Exchange
N SIVAKUMAR & S SATHYYANARAYANAN.
International Journal of Indian Culture & Business Management.
2009. Vol 3. pp 281-294.
Abstract: "Indian culture has popularly believed that the moon has a close relation with human thinking and decision making. The impact of the moon on human behaviour has been an important aspect of research study. As stock market activity and movements are based on human behaviour and decision making, it is desirable to study its impact on stock market activity and movements. Indian culture describes lunar cycles as Shukla Paksha (the bright lunar cycle) and Krishna Paksha (the dark lunar cycle). This article studies the impact of lunar cycles on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The study uses the BSE Sensex data over a period of 17 years to study whether there are significant differences in the stock market activity and movements in the Shukla Paksha and Krishna Paksha. Based on the analysis, the article finds that the impact of lunar cycles on Indian stock markets is quite limited. After an introduction to lunar cycles, the article provides a literature review on the current research on lunar cycles and their impact on stock markets. The article then studies the impact of lunar cycles in relation to the BSE Sensex. The article provides inferences based on study and the implications of the study."

A Bayesian Analysis of Lunar Effects on Stock Returns
Shu-Ing LIU
Shih Hsin University - Department of Finance. March 22, 2009.
Abstract: "Biological, psychological and medical evidence widely suggests that the lunar phases may affect human behavior and mood. This suggestion motivates this study of the relationship between lunar phases and stock returns. Relevant papers indicate that lunar cycles effects do have an effect on stock returns. They indicate that the mean daily stock returns are lower near the full moon and higher near the new moon days. This paper further investigates the association between the lunar phases and daily stock returns by using a two-regime autoregressive model with a GARCH(1,1) innovation. Rather than only examining the average daily returns, the discussion will be extended in three directions: the average daily returns, the correlation between consecutive daily returns, and the GARCH volatility. The Bayesian approach will be applied to the daily stock returns of 12 countries, including the G-7 markets and five emerging markets in Asia. In general, the statistical results indicate the existence of lunar effects on daily stock returns, although different patterns are shown by the G-7 markets and some of the discussed Asian markets. In particular, the autocorrelation for consecutive daily returns is significantly different, according to both the lunar phases and the diverse structures of the various stock markets. Furthermore, for some of the G-7 markets, the volatility of the stock returns does change according to different lunar phases; higher volatility in the full moon period. In summary, the evidence is consistent, and supports the popular belief that lunar phases do affect human financial behavior."

The US Financial Markets Are Correlated With Specific Moon Phases
Marco HICKEY. April 2009.

Dark Omens in the Sky: Do Superstitious Beliefs Affect Investment Decisions?
Gabriele M. LEPORI. July 2, 2009.
Copenhagen Business School. Department of Finance.
Abstract: "Psychological research documents that individuals are more likely to resort to superstitious practices when operating in environments dominated by uncertainty, high stakes, and perceived lack of control over the outcomes. Based on these findings, we suggest that the stock market represents an ideal breeding ground for superstition and then test whether superstition-induced behavior affects investment decisions. Our empirical analysis focuses on some beliefs associated with eclipses, phenomena that are typically interpreted as bad omens by the superstitious both in Asian and Western societies, and we employ a dataset containing 362 such events over the period 1928-2008. Using four broad indices of the U.S. stock market, we uncover strong evidence in support of our superstition hypothesis in four distinct ways. First, the occurrence of negative superstitious events (i.e. eclipses) is associated with below-average stock returns, which is consistent with a diminished buying pressure coming from the superstitious. Second, the size of the superstition effect is estimated to increase in times of high market uncertainty and when eclipses draw wide media coverage and public attention. Third, the negative performance of the market during the superstitious event is followed by a reversal effect of similar magnitude (10 basis points per day) on the subsequent trading days. Fourth, eclipses are accompanied by a trading volume decline. When we extend our analysis to a sample of Asian countries, we find analogous results. The patterns we document are inconsistent with the Efficient Market Theory, as eclipses are perfectly predictable events."

HUMAN PHYSIOLOGY & MARKET TRADING

The Moon Sun hypothesis is based on the premise that Moon Sun cycles influence mass human physiological cycles, which influence the mass mood and thereby drive financial activity. Thus, references on the impact of hormones on the human reward system have been presented.

Why Can't A Woman Bid More Like A Man?
Yan CHEN, Peter KATUSCAK & Emre OZDENOREN.
Working paper. September 3, 2005.
Abstract: “We find robust gender difference in bidding behavior in sealed bid auctions with independent and private valuations in a laboratory setting. In particular, we find that women bid significantly higher and earn significantly less than men do in the first-price auction, while we find no evidence of a gender difference in the likelihood of dominant strategy play in the second price auction. At a biological level, in the first price auction, women during menstruation, when the estrogen level is lowest, do not bid differently from men. The gender difference in the first price auction is driven by women during other phases of the menstrual cycle when they have higher estrogen levels.”

The Lunar Cycle: Effects On Human and Animal Behavior and Physiology
Michal ZIMECKI
Postpy higieny i medycyny doświadczalnej (Online). 01/02/2006; 60:1-7
Abstract: "Human and animal physiology are subject to seasonal, lunar, and circadian rhythms. Although the seasonal and circadian rhythms have been fairly well described, little is known about the effects of the lunar cycle on the behavior and physiology of humans and animals. The lunar cycle has an impact on human reproduction, in particular fertility, menstruation, and birth rate. Melatonin levels appear to correlate with the menstrual cycle. Admittance to hospitals and emergency units because of various causes (cardiovascular and acute coronary events, variceal hemorrhage, diarrhea, urinary retention) correlated with moon phases. In addition, other events associated with human behavior, such as traffic accidents, crimes, and suicides, appeared to be influenced by the lunar cycle. However, a number of reports find no correlation between the lunar cycle and human reproduction and admittance to clinics and emergency units. Animal studies revealed that the lunar cycle may affect hormonal changes early in phylogenesis (insects). In fish the lunar clock influences reproduction and involves the hypothalamus-pituitary-gonadal axis. In birds, the daily variations in melatonin and corticosterone disappear during full-moon days. The lunar cycle also exerts effects on laboratory rats with regard to taste sensitivity and the ultrastructure of pineal gland cells. Cyclic variations related to the moon's phases in the magnitude of the humoral immune response of mice to polivinylpyrrolidone and sheep erythrocytes were also described. It is suggested that melatonin and endogenous steroids may mediate the described cyclic alterations of physiological processes. The release of neurohormones may be triggered by the electromagnetic radiation and/or the gravitational pull of the moon. Although the exact mechanism of the moon's influence on humans and animals awaits further exploration, knowledge of this kind of biorhythm may be helpful in police surveillance, medical practice, and investigations involving laboratory animals."

Menstrual cycle phase modulates reward-related neural function in women.
Jean-Claude DREHER et al.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2007 104:2465-2470.
Abstract. “There is considerable evidence from animal studies that the mesolimbic and mesocortical dopamine systems are sensitive to circulating gonadal steroid hormones. Less is known about the influence of estrogen and progesterone on the human reward system. To investigate this directly, we used functional MRI and an event-related monetary reward paradigm to study women with a repeated-measures, counterbalanced design across the menstrual cycle. Here we show that during the midfollicular phase (days 4–8 after onset of menses) women anticipating uncertain rewards activated the orbitofrontal cortex and amygdala more than during the luteal phase (6–10 days after luteinizing hormone surge). At the time of reward delivery, women in the follicular phase activated the midbrain, striatum, and left fronto-polar cortex more than during the luteal phase. These data demonstrate augmented reactivity of the reward system in women during the midfollicular phase when estrogen is unopposed by progesterone. Moreover, investigation of between-sex differences revealed that men activated ventral putamen more than women during anticipation of uncertain rewards, whereas women more strongly activated the anterior medial prefrontal cortex at the time of reward delivery. Correlation between brain activity and gonadal steroid levels also revealed that the amygdalo-hippocampal complex was positively correlated with estradiol level, regardless of menstrual cycle phase. Together, our findings provide evidence of neurofunctional modulation of the reward system by gonadal steroid hormones in humans and establish a neurobiological foundation for understanding their impact on vulnerability to drug abuse, neuropsychiatric diseases with differential expression across males and females, and hormonally mediated mood disorders.”

Endogenous steroids and financial risk taking on a London trading floor
J M COATES & J HERBERT
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2008 Apr 22; 105 (16): 6167-72.
Abstract. "Little is known about the role of the endocrine system in financial risk taking. Here, we report the findings of a study in which we sampled, under real working conditions, endogenous steroids from a group of male traders in the City of London. We found that a trader's morning testosterone level predicts his day's profitability. We also found that a trader's cortisol rises with both the variance of his trading results and the volatility of the market. Our results suggest that higher testosterone may contribute to economic return, whereas cortisol is increased by risk. Our results point to a further possibility: testosterone and cortisol are known to have cognitive and behavioral effects, so if the acutely elevated steroids we observed were to persist or increase as volatility rises, they may shift risk preferences and even affect a trader's ability to engage in rational choice."

Second-to- fourth digit ratio predicts success among high frequency financial traders.
John M COATES, Mark GURNELL & Aldo RUSTICHINI
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2009 Jan 13; 106: 347-348.
Abstract. “In this study, we investigate gender differences and menstrual cycle effects in first-price and second-price sealed-bid auctions with independent private values in a laboratory setting. We find that women bid significantly higher and earn significantly less than men do in the first-price auction, while we find no evidence of a gender difference in bidding in the second-price auction. At a biological level, we find a sine-like pattern of bidding in the first-price auction throughout the menstrual cycle, with higher bidding in the follicular phase and lower bidding in the luteal phase. Further analysis shows almost all of the variation is driven by contraceptive pill users.”

SUN'S POSITION ON THE ECLIPTICAL CIRCLE

Papers on the January effect and September swoon have been included, as the key variable in these phenomena may be the position of the Sun on the ecliptical circle.

The Other January Effect
Michael COOPER, John J McCONNELL & Alexei OVTCHINNIKOV.
Sep 19, 2005. AFA 2006 Boston Meetings Paper.
Abstract: "Streetlore" has touted the market return in January as a predictor of market returns for the remainder of the year since at least 1973. We systematically examine the predictive power of January returns over the period 1940-2003 and find that January returns have predictive power for market returns over the next 11 months of the year. The effect persists after controlling for macroeconomic/business cycle variables that have been shown to predict stock returns, the Presidential Cycle in returns, and investor sentiment and persists among both large and small capitalization stocks and among both value and glamour stocks. Additionally, we find that January has predictive power for two of the three premiums in the Fama-French (1993) three-factor model of asset pricing."

The January Effect
Mark HAUG & Mark HIRSCHEY. Nov 2005
Abstract: "This paper uses broad samples of value-weighted and equally-weighted returns to document the fact that abnormally high rates of return on small-cap stocks continued to be observed during the month of January. The January effect in small cap stock returns is remarkably consistent over time, and does not appear to have been affected by passage of the Tax Reform Act of 1986. This finding adds new perspective to the traditional tax-loss selling hypothesis, and suggests the potential relevance of behavioral explanations. After a generation of intensive study, the January effect is alive and well, and continues to present a daunting challenge to the Efficient Market Hypothesis."

The September Swoon.
M HAUG & M HIRSCHEY. 2006.
Paper presented at the 2006 Financial Management Association Annual Meeting. Salt Lake City Utah.
Abstract: "Broad samples of value - weighted and equally - weighted portfolio returns documents the fact that abnormally negative rate of returns on both large cap and small cap stocks are common during the month of September. This "September swoon" in stock returns is consistent overtime and appears robust. Moreover, the September swoon cannot be easily explained as the result of diligent data snooping nor as a simple consequent of the Tax Reform Act of 1986. From a behavioral perspective, a September swoon is consistent with an increase in investor risk aversion tied to September's large loss in daylight, the end of summer and the onset of the "winter blues". Like the often studied January effect. the September swoon presents a daunting challenge to the Efficient Market Hypothesis."

ARTICLES IN THE MEDIA

What a little moonlight can do.
The Economist.
p 72, Oct 20, 2001.

Blame it on the moonlight.
Gail VINES.
New Scientist. Jun 30, 2001.

New Study Finds Lunar Cycles Affect The Performance Of Share Markets Worldwide.
Alison BEARD. The Financial Times. Global Investing. p 25. Jan 10, 2002

Moon Sun Finance.
David McMINN.
The Technical Analyst. p 28, Jul/Aug 2004.

The Sun, The Moon & The Market.
Business Week. June 5, 2006.

Strategies: Fly me to the Moon and let me profit my stocks.
Mark HULBERT.
The New York Times. Nov 19, 2006.

Study Shows Correlation Between Stock Market, Lunar Cycle.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Nov 29, 2006.

SAC made me take female hormones.
Paul THARP & Roddy BOYD. New York Post. Oct 11, 2007.

Traders' raging hormones cause stock market swings.
Jason PALMER. New Scientist. Apr 14, 2008.

Testosterone may fuel stock-market success, Or make traders tipsy.
Robert Lee HOTZ. online.wsj.com. Apr 18, 2008.

Hormones may be hurting stock markets.
John COATES. telegraph.co.uk. Sep 22, 2008.

Observations on Lunar Phase and US Panics.
David McMINN.
The Technical Analyst. p 24-25, Oct 2008.

Stock Market Success May Stem From Prenatal Hormone Levels.
Scott P EDWARDS. The DANA Foundation. March 19, 2009.

A Self-Fulfilling Hormonal Prophesy.
Helen THOMAS. ft.com/alphaville. Apr 15, 2009.

Do Moon Cycles Affect The Stock Market?
Derek THOMPSON.
The Atlantic. June 23, 2009.

Hormones, incentive, experience make best traders.
Kate KELLAND. reuters.com. Nov 25, 2009.

Looking For High Returns? Follow the Moon.
Leo LEWIS.
Times Online. Dec 22, 2009.

Follow the New Moon for high returns on investments.
Business Standard. Press trust of India. Dec 23, 2009.

Returns around the New Moon are double than Full Moon phase.
India Times. The Economic Times. Dec 23, 2009.

Market moves and the lunatic fringe.
The Australian. Business. Dec 23, 2009.